3 most important factors affecting markets right now:
1. Positioning - continues to be insanely offside post October 10th liquidation. L/S bias is currently 39% on Hyperliquid. Funding rates for some assets have been negative over the last few days. Believe over the next few weeks we will return to a more equlibrium L/S bias which would essentially show as bids for crypto risk assets/removing of shorts, pushing prices higher.
2. TradFi & Political Factors remain the most important risk vector for crypto assets:
(a) continued escalation between Trump and China would be terrible for markets, but we know what the Trump playbook is - escalate, apply leverage, and then deescalate and get the desired result. It is clear that this is an ongoing tactic the administration will use, and thus it is likely that we will get some type of positive resolution over the next 3 weeks particularly with Trump and Xi meeting in South Korea at the end of the month
(b) a potential slowdown in AI productivity, spending, and growth would be negative risk assets. We have Q3 earnings being released over the next few weeks which will help gauge the extent of this risk.
(c) In the long-term you still have the continued debasement of fiat currencies (rising M2 supply), large fiscal deficits, and the expectation of a rate cutting cycle all of which are massively positive for risk assets.
3. Crypto fundamentals are very strong. BTC's is as relevant as ever as an alternative store of value to fiat, with the US government recently seizing $14bn of BTC and deciding not to sell this in the market. You have incoming stablecoin regulation, the ongoing adoption of crypto rails by TradFi giants (Blackrock, Goldman, Stripe) as well as many projects generating real revenues, trading at attractive revenue multiples with significant growth prospects (10 - 40x).
My conclusion is outside of a worsening of conditions relating to 2a) and 2b), we grind higher from here. Invalidation would be if L/S comes back to neutral and prices stay the same and/or worsening of 2a) and 2b), where you protect capital and look to bid lower.
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