This is my current analysis on my heavy somnia bags...
Bottom line:
Moon case = Liquidity rotation + strong CEX listing + sticky narrative (“on-chain gaming + AI predictive”) → early multiple before unlock pressure, could still push more yappers to somnia, rotate the attention back and then capital after it's TGE...
Dust case = Unlock outpaces adoption → becomes another forgotten TGE chart, I hope this won't be the case tho
Somnia’s TGE pricing and FDV put it in that middle-tier launch zone.
Somnia doesn’t yet have Ronin’s DAU traction or Aptos’ institutional presence, but its FDV is much lighter, which leaves room if mindshare + liquidity rotate in.
👉 Moon tilt if capital rotation favors “gaming x AI x predictive markets” and traders treat it as the new sector bet.
👉 Dust tilt if FDV is seen as over-extended relative to adoption speed. (1/3)
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